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ARTICLES >> Environment Weather Watch

Weather Watch - April 2011

Posted by Bestprac on Apr 02 2011

by Susan Carn

The rain just keeps on coming! As I write, poor old Tasmania is the next state copping it, and not for the first time this year. I have just read a report from the ABC (24/3/11) which said “Thousands of hectares of crops were wiped out when torrential rain hit the state in January. Many farmers who have just started to recover have been dealt another blow by torrential rain in the past two days.”

So is 2010/11 similar to what happened in the 1970’s ? My husband has great tales of not being able to get to school for a whole term! Then there was the time when his parents saw a break in the weather and decided to make a run for it and drive the 20 miles into town to get supplies. It rained again while they were there and they didn’t make it back for a week!

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

In the latest DPI VIC “The Break” newsletter, it is recommended “that you have an “Ask your Dad” session! He was farming in the mid seventies when it was wet, while the last 10 years has been all about managing risk when the dryness was at top of mind.”

They also report that “The La Nina has, in many scientists’ eyes, been the biggest on record with an unprecedented wet summer. Mind you we only have 100 odd years of data collected.”

However, a report by Blair Trewin, Climate Analyst BOM, titled “Widespread flooding in 2010-11 compared with other years”, states that the records show that “Overall rainfall was heavier in 1974 than in 2011.”

Our Bestprac group had a meeting this week and the consensus was that for northern SA at least, the mid 70’s were a lot wetter. However we were all more than happy with what we got this year!

But what of 2011? The latest from the Bureau of Meteorology says “All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña is likely through the southern hemisphere autumn, with a return to neutral conditions likely by winter 2011.”

The latest from the APEC Climate Center based in Korea says much the same, plus they make mention of possible cold conditions for April, May and June. Most interesting is the possible chance of wetter than normal conditions for WA in June. Let’s hope so!

You can see what they predict for your area (follow this link) and scroll down to “Deterministic MME Forecast”, click on month, then under region click Australia.

You may also like to have a play around with one of the BOM tools found on their Water and the Land (WATL) website to see what the chances are of getting a certain amount of rainfall in the next 3 months. Click ”chance of at least” and then click how many mm.

With an abundance of sub-soil moisture this year, I am quietly optimistic for 2011!

Last changed: Feb 09 2012

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