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ARTICLES >> Environment Weather Watch

Weather Watch- July 2013

Posted by Bestprac on Jul 01 2013

by Susan Carn (Hawker/Blinman Bestprac Group)
How quickly things can turn around! In the last month, we have received 105mm of rain, with even more on our leased property. So, our crops are off to a great start. It’s a real pleasure to see everything go so green so quickly, to see full dams again and watch creeks flow that haven’t done so in years.

I keep a chart of the growing season and we have gone from barely decile 5 up to almost decile 9. You can see how your season is going by using the Australian CliMate website or app and looking at “Seasons Progress”.
http://www.australianclimate.net.au/

Of course, we have a long way to go until reaping, so I am following the seasonal forecasts closely. The Bureau of Meteorology’s new POAMA model shows a high probability of my area exceeding median rainfall, from July to September. The reliability of this model for these months is better than previous months.

 Chance of exceeding the median Ranfall  Rainfall (above/below median)

 Other seasonal models, like those from Japan and Korea, are predicting around average conditions for these months too, so I can be reasonably sure of a good finish.

The reason for this optimism is due to what is happening, and what is predicted to happen, in the Indian and Pacific oceans. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is developing and conditions in the Pacific are conducive to a La Nina event. This is what happened in 2010, however this year the prediction is for both the negative IOD and La Nina to be weak events and short lived. This is probably a good thing in terms of harvest time.To keep track of the IOD and La Nina, go to the Bureau of Meteorology website called ENSO wrap-up. The latest update was on the 2nd July.  Then click on “Climate models” and “Indian Ocean”.

Another thing I’m keeping an eye on this month is the Indian Monsoon. Earlier it was predicted to be a weak event this year but, as we saw on the news, it has begun with a vengeance. The India Meteorological Department are now predicting an average to above average monsoon, due to the developing weak negative IOD and possible weak La Nina.

This means increased likelihood of north-west cloudbands bringing good rains to the northwestern, central and southeastern parts of Australia. The old farmers’ tale of getting rain 6 weeks after India is feasible as long as the conditions are right. It looks like they are this year, as they were in 2010 when we were getting good rain events 5 to 7 weeks after a major monsoon event in India.

So, if my theory is correct we should get some good rain at around the end of this month. We shall see! Here is a link to The Weather Channel website map that I use to track the movement of any big rain events coming from India and Indonesia. Click on “Weather in motion” to see which direction it’s going.
 

Last changed: Jul 02 2013

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